Prospek Perekonomian 2020- halaman 2

• Apalagi,data tingkat pengangguran masih menunjukan ekspansi kesempatan kerja di AS
• Data-data sector keuangan sudah tidak menujukan inverted yield curve setelah the FEDS menurunkan suku bunga untuk ketiga kali nya
• Prilaku pemodal di AS terdapat perubahan kebijakan suku bunga bank sentral AS

-penurunan suku bunga bank sentral AS untuk mendorong perekonomian malahan membuat pemodal tambah khawatir bahwa resesi semakin dekat sehingga mereka memindahkan dana nya ke Negara-negara asia yang prospektif

Optimism in one day and pessimism in the next day yield curve

• A closely followed recession indicator just flashed red for the 2^nd time this year
• The yield curve is no longer inverted, but that doesn’t nrcessarily mean income investors wary of economic growth and risk assets should pile into treasuries
• On Oct. 11 the yield on the 10-year exceeded that of the 3-month bills for the firs time in several months. Aprolonged inversion of the two yields often indicates that a recession is coming sooner rather than later, as investors seek to protect their capital over the long term, while expecting economic groeth and inflation to be muted.bond yields fall when their prices rise.
• The slightly positive spread in yield now comes as investors have grown incrementally more optimistic
• A few blips of positive trade news, namely president Donald trump and China commenting that they’re interested in a partial trade agreement, have come out recently
• Last week confirms it. Goodbye, RECESSION – Hello, Bull market
• Unemployment may be a near record low, but it’s not all good news for workers

Sektor riel AS

• Pertumbuhan ekonomi di triwulan II melambat secara signifikan ke 2,1 persen (y.o.y) dari 3,1 persen di triwulan I 2019. Definisi resesi di adalah penurunan pertumbuhan di dua triwulan berturut-turut secara signifikan
• Sementara itu tidak hanya pertumbuhan tetapi beberapa indikatior yang lain seperti PMI (purchasing manager index), muatan truk lintas Negara bagian dan keyakinan bisnis mulai menurun

Sementara itu tidak hanya pertumbuhan tetapi beberapa indikatior yang lain seperti PMI (purchasing manager index), muatan truk lintas Negara bagian dan keyakinan bisnis mulai menurun